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Article on DVD sales, and next gen media impact

Discussion in 'Movie Lounge' started by Michael, Jun 25, 2007.

  1. Michael

    Michael Junior Geek

    I have quoted and bolded some of the most interesting news, but you should read the whole article. Pretty interesting on the business side of DVD and next gen media.





    http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6453579.html
     
  2. Shane

    Shane Active Member

    If that highlighted stuff is "news" then Universal will switch sides in 2008 is also news :)

    It's speculation at the very least.
    This is a interesting. This 1.7-1 ratio is what we are at now.

    While the PS3 users(which account for the bulk of the purchasing right now on BR) are buying less discs(than thought), they are still buying 2-1 more discs than HD DVD buyers which either says that people who buy HD DVD are either renters or unsure of their format(more news).
     
  3. CJ

    CJ Well-Known Member Admin War Zone Member

    Interesting that they are estimating that there are 187 million HDTVs out there in homes. (the comment that 30 million HD players will = 16% of HDTVs)

    There are some stacked assumptions (stacking one assumption on another). Blu-Ray COULD be selling 1.7x more than HD-DVD by 2010 OR it could be that Blu-Ray is dead and HD-DVD is selling 50x the software. What's the margin of error on a prediction like this?

    That doesn't look good for HD-DVD. Assuming that all titles cost the same (any number X) will yield a dollar AND disc ration of 1.8x as many BD disks sold. (e.g. Assuming all titles cost $23 (about the average I've seen) that means about 1.5 million BD discs sold and 826,000 HD-DVDs sold = 1.8x). On top of that, we've been told repeatedly that the top selling HD-DVDs are more expensive than the top selling BD disks because the top selling HD-DVDs include Planet Earth and The Matrix movies. So if HD-DVD cost per title is higher that means the discs sold ratio is even greater, perhaps 2:1 in favor of Blu_Ray. So it sounds like they're predicting that margin to SHRINK? That doesn't sound right to me.

    Just crunching numbers and reading between the lines. Great link, thanks.
     
  4. Shane

    Shane Active Member

    Also realize that HD DVD's are more expensive in general due to the combo discs.

    As it stands right now Br is outselling HD by 2-1.
     
  5. Michael

    Michael Junior Geek

    I thought those sales numbers were interesting because they were comparing 108 BD titles to 66 HD DVD titles. We all know that there have been many more discs released, particularly on the HD DVD side. But based on those numbers, HD DVD is doing better on a per title basis. That is likely because of Planet Earth doing better on HD DVD and The Matrix boxset doing well.

    If you look at the overall numbers, the trend still seems to be that HD DVD standalone sales will outpace BD stand alone sales. The PS3 will keep BD alive until stand alone prices drop enough for both formats to keep on chugging.
     
  6. CJ

    CJ Well-Known Member Admin War Zone Member

    Yeah sure but the 800 lb. gorilla in the corner is that more PS3s have been sold than HD-DVD and Blu-Ray stand alone players COMBINED. That's not trivial and something that should be "swept under the rug" ;)
     
  7. Michael

    Michael Junior Geek

    Not at all.

    The PS3 is such an interesting beast. It looks like having a BD drive in it has been a tremendous boon to Blu-Ray, but an albatross as a gaming device.
     
  8. CJ

    CJ Well-Known Member Admin War Zone Member

    You are partially correct. By which I mean that I think the pricing of the PS3 which was forced by having the BD component and that has hurt the PS3 but I also think the lack of titles and unexpected competition from the Wii (with a very close release date) has hurt. In other words, its not all the BD drive. But to bring it back around, with 3.5ish million PS3s sold now, even if only 10% are being used as BD players, that eclipses all HD-DVD playing devices IF IF IF I recall correctly (would welcome actual sales figures). The rest is just gravy.
     
  9. Michael

    Michael Junior Geek

    But that is also what makes things so interesting.

    With this massive installed base of potential BD players, why is BD not burying HD DVD? The attach rate for HD DVD is obviously much higher, which means that any boost in HD DVD player sales can have a quick and profound impact on software sales.

    I think that is why you saw the grouping of BD news last week, coinciding with Blu-Ray's one year anniversary. They needed to slow the HD DVD hardware momentum and try and scare people from buying HD DVD software before the software sales charts started to swing the other way.

    How could the Blu-Ray group possibly explain not having a massive software sales lead with such a large number of BD capable devices out there? They desperately need to keep their studio support advantage, because without it they could not even hold on to the small software sales advantage they currently have.
     
  10. CJ

    CJ Well-Known Member Admin War Zone Member

    What is the attach rate of stand alone players? You're comparing what, 300-400,000 HD-DVD playing machines (stand-alones plus Xbox add ons) with 3.7 MILLION Blu-Ray playing machines (stand-alones plus PS3s). If you use those install bases, of course the attach rate is better for HD-DVD.
     
  11. Michael

    Michael Junior Geek

    Exactly!

    Each HD DVD player sale is much more significant then a PS3 sale. With PS3 sales being about 20k a week, it doesn't take many HD DVD player sales to change the software sales landscape.
     
  12. Jason P

    Jason P Member War Zone Member

    Agreed.
     
  13. CJ

    CJ Well-Known Member Admin War Zone Member

    I'm not sure I agree or perhaps I don't understand. If they're selling 20k PS3s a week and 2500 HD-DVD players a week then those people need to buy nearly 10x as many disks as the PS3 owners. Frankly if I'm outselling the competition 2:1 I don't really care about attach rates. Which would you rather have, 50% of HD-DVD player owners buy your movie or 10% of Blu-Ray owners? 50% of 300,000 = 150,000 copies. 10% of 3.6 or 3.7 million = 360,000 copies. If I'm a movie studio, I'm thinking 300k copies+ looks better. You have some very valid points though and I appreciate the contribution. I think this dialog is great for all the lurkers and less frequent posters.
     
  14. Michael

    Michael Junior Geek

    Except that HD DVD players jumped significantly at the beginning of the month. I want to say somewhere to the tune of 50k players during the $100 rebate sales. If only 80k PS3s sold in the same time frame (they sold 80k PS3s last month), then the net impact to software sales will be to HD DVDs advantage.

    The point is that if HD DVD can sell 50k players a month versus the PS3 selling 80k devices a month, then any BD software sales advantage is going to evaporate. Keep in mind that even Pirates of the Carribean has sold under 80k copies. The software sales volume is low right now so if HD DVD players can be even 1/2 of PS3 sales, it is going to change the software sales ratio quickly and dramatically.

    The only thing that can alter that is if people get scared out of buying HD DVDs.
     
  15. CJ

    CJ Well-Known Member Admin War Zone Member

    Very good point. I still don't like the term scared though. Or if that's the case then it certainly sounds like you're trying to scare people out of buying Blu-Ray.
     
  16. LarryB

    LarryB Active Member

    From the broader perspective, the good news is that Hi-Def technology is, overall, doing quite well. This of course bodes well for its survival, format war notwithstanding.
     
  17. LarryB

    LarryB Active Member

    Michael is too moral to adopt the slimy practices of the marketers.

    :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

    [In case it was not clear from the ten smileys, this was intended purely as a joke.]
     
  18. CJ

    CJ Well-Known Member Admin War Zone Member

    Though we are I guess arguing, I should make it clear that these are exactly the kinds of threads I like to see on the forum. This is a good debate!
     
  19. Shane

    Shane Active Member

    Scared is Michael's term. The studios and BR group is just putting out announcements as deals come thru. The unintended result might be "scared" people. If people had confidence in their chosen format they wouldn't be scared. HD DVD is particularly fragile right now because they haven't shown they can sway the studios. The format war will be over once the studios unite. The current dual format studios are doing it to get a taste of both formats but also not to get burned if they go either way.
     
  20. Michael

    Michael Junior Geek

    What I would like is for consumers and enthusiasts to "scare" the BDA into releasing more info on BD+. That would be a beautiful thing. And if the studios can release discs that can update hardware (firmware, etc) without user consent, for the consumers to "scare" them into removing that 'feature'.


    And I am sorry if anyone does not like the term "scared" when referring to the BDA's marketing tactics. But anytime you have the same group constantly talking about the war being over, those are scare tactics. The intent is to make people feel like they are buying useless hardware and software unless they buy "Big Blue". :wink:

    As I have stated before, there is nothing wrong with the tactic. Just like there is nothing wrong with consumers "scaring" the studios into releasing what they want. We should just recognize it for the propoganda based marketing that it is.
     

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