Drawing on my infinite wisdom, i predict that Pirates of the Caribbean will surprise the experts by not only opening smaller than Spiderman 3, but also smaller than Shrek 3 as well. Why? First, after two blockbusters this month, i think many people will just be "movied out", and not want to fight the big crowds a third time. Second, since Shrek 3 just opened last week, it will still be drawing big crowds, enough to take significant business away from "Pirates". Disney should have held off on this release until later in the summer. Thus, i predict a friday-sunday box office of $90 million.